Susceptibility to Misinformation about COVID-19 around the World

"[W]e demonstrate a clear link, replicated internationally, between susceptibility to misinformation and vaccine hesitancy and a reduced likelihood of complying with public health guidance."

The proliferation of misinformation online, along with its real-life adverse effects on society and public health, has prompted researchers to investigate people's belief in false information and conspiracy theories. The present research assesses belief in misinformation and its determinants in a diverse set of 5 countries that have experienced different death rates and government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. It also examines the effects of susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 on: (i) willingness to get vaccinated against the disease and to recommend that vulnerable friends and family members get vaccinated; and (ii) the degree of compliance with public health guidance such as wearing a mask in public.

The study used national surveys in Ireland (n=700), the United States (n=700), Spain (n=700), and Mexico (n=700), conducted between mid-April and early May of 2020, and 2 separate surveys in the United Kingdom (UK) (n=1,050, conducted on April 14 2020, and n=1,150, conducted on May 11 2020). The researchers asked participants to rate the reliability of several statements, including 6 popular myths about COVID-19 (e.g., "5G networks may be making us more susceptible to the coronavirus").

While a majority of people in all 5 nations judged the misinformation to be unreliable, researchers found that certain conspiracy theories have taken root in significant portions of the population. The conspiracy deemed most valid across the board was the claim that COVID-19 was engineered in a Wuhan, China, laboratory. Between 22-23% of respondents in the UK and US rated this assertion as "reliable". In Ireland this rose to 26%, while in Mexico and Spain it jumped to 33% and 37% respectively. This item was followed by the idea that the pandemic is "part of a plot to enforce global vaccination", with 22% of the Mexican population rating this as reliable, along with 18% in Ireland, Spain, and the US, and 13% in the UK.

The research reveals key predictors for susceptibility to fake pandemic news:

• Higher trust that politicians can effectively tackle the COVID-19 crisis predicts higher susceptibility to misinformation in Mexico, Spain, and the US.
• In Ireland, Mexico, and Spain, identifying as more right-wing or politically conservative is associated with higher susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19.
• Being exposed to information about the virus on social media is significantly associated with higher susceptibility to misinformation in Ireland, the UK, and the US. (One explanation for this finding is that misinformation via social media may be amplified through social consensus.)
• Self-identifying as a member of a minority group is significantly associated with higher susceptibility to misinformation about the virus in all countries except the UK.

On the other hand, several factors appear to significantly decrease susceptibility to COVID-19 misinformation:

• Higher trust in scientists is associated with lower susceptibility to coronavirus-related misinformation in all countries, which highlights not just the critical role that scientists play in combating the virus, but also the importance of communicating scientific research to the public.
• The most consistent predictor of decreased susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 is performance on the numeracy tasks. This finding is consistent with a large literature finding that reflective and analytical thinking are consistently associated with reduced susceptibility to misinformation.
• Getting information from the World Health Organization (WHO) is associated with lower susceptibility to misinformation.
• Being older is associated with lower susceptibility to misinformation in the pooled model and in all countries except Mexico, where the effect is also significant but reversed.

In terms of links between misinformation and behaviour:

• When controlling for all other factors, an increase by one-seventh in someone's perceived reliability of misinformation is associated with a 23% and 28% decrease in the likelihood to get vaccinated and to recommend vaccination to vulnerable friends and family, respectively. This effect is consistent in all countries (with odds ratios ranging from 0.68 to 0.80) except Spain. (Conversely, an increase by one-seventh in trust in scientists is associated with a 73% increase in the odds of getting vaccinated and a 79% increase in the odds of recommending vaccination to others.)
• Higher susceptibility to misinformation is the only variable in the model that predicts lower compliance with public health guidance, particularly in Mexico and Spain, but also in the US. This effect is not significant in Ireland and the UK. Also of note is that women are significantly more likely than men to comply with a greater number of public health guidance measures in all countries surveyed.

Among the implications: The fostering of numerical and critical thinking skills for sifting through online information could be vital for curbing what WHO has called the COVID-19 "infodemic" and promoting good public health behaviour. Thus, in addition to flagging false claims, governments and technology companies should explore ways to increase digital media literacy in the population.

In conclusion: "Further research should explore how digital media and risk literacy interventions may impact how (mis)information is received, processed and shared, and how they can be leveraged to improve resilience against misinformation on a societal level."